History Repeats: The West’s Fear of a Dominant China

“The foundation of war is economics.” – Elon Musk

History is cyclical. What happened before often reoccurs, albeit in different forms. China’s rise today mirrors its past economic dominance before the Opium Wars, when the West intervened to dismantle its prosperity. Now, as China is poised to surpass the United States economically, the question remains: What will the West do this time?

China’s Pre-Opium War Economic Supremacy

Before the Opium Wars (1839–1860), China was the world’s largest economy, controlling roughly one-third of global GDP. It had a highly advanced manufacturing sector, producing silk, porcelain, and tea, which were in high demand in Europe. The British Empire, facing a massive trade deficit, resorted to flooding China with opium to destabilise its economy and society. When China resisted, Britain responded with war, forcing open trade under unequal treaties and weakening Chinese sovereignty for over a century.

The West’s fear was clear: a dominant China threatened their economic control. By keeping China weak and dependent, they secured their own prosperity.

China’s Rise and the West’s New Dilemma

Fast forward to today, and history is rhyming once again. Elon Musk recently predicted that China’s economy could grow to be two to three times larger than the U.S. economy. This is not just speculation China is already the world’s largest manufacturing power and fastest-growing trillion-dollar economy. Its advancements in 5G, AI, electric vehicles, and space technology are making it a formidable competitor.

But just like in the 19th century, Western powers are uneasy. The U.S. maintains dominance with military alliances, financial systems (USD as the global reserve currency), and technological supremacy, but these are now being challenged. China’s rise threatens to displace Western hegemony, just as it did before the Opium Wars.

The West’s Possible Response: A Modern ‘Opium War’?

Given historical patterns, how will the West respond this time?

1. Trade Wars and Economic Containment

• The U.S.-China trade war under Trump was an early sign. Sanctions on Huawei, tariffs on Chinese goods, and restrictions on Chinese tech firms are all modern economic weapons.

2. Geopolitical Disruptions

• The U.S. is strengthening alliances with Taiwan, Japan, India, and Australia to counter China. Taiwan, in particular, is a potential flashpoint that could trigger global conflict.

3. Financial Warfare

• The U.S. is trying to weaken China’s financial power by restricting its access to global banking systems (SWIFT) and limiting the yuan’s internationalisation. This mirrors how Britain controlled China’s trade after the Opium Wars.

4. Technological Sabotage

• Just as opium was used to destabilise China in the past, information warfare and cyber-attacks are new-age tools to weaken China’s growth. The AI and semiconductor bans are part of this strategy.

5. Proxy Conflicts

• The U.S. might prolong conflicts in Asia (South China Sea, Taiwan, Hong Kong) to drain China’s resources and prevent it from fully overtaking the West.

A New Global Order?

Despite these challenges, China today is far stronger than Qing Dynasty China. It has nuclear weapons, strong global alliances (BRICS, Belt and Road Initiative), and economic leverage over many Western economies. Unlike the past, the West cannot simply force China into submission.

The real question is: Will the West accept China’s rise peacefully, or will it resort to war once again to maintain dominance?

If history is any guide, the answer is clear the West will not give up power without a fight.